Schumpeter Lecture

EEA
Presenter(s) Type Length Chair Room Number Add to calendar
Yuriy Gorodnichenko Keynote Address 28/08 11:00 CEST
75
mins
Add to Calendar 2025-08-28 11:00:00 2025-06-25 19:56:32 EEA-ESEM 2024: Schumpeter Lecture. Room: How do expectations about the future influence economic behavior? For decades, economists have known that beliefs play a central role—from how much households spend, to how firms set prices, to how central banks design policy. But figuring out exactly how expectations affect decisions has been one of the field’s most persistent empirical challenges.This lecture presents a fresh empirical approach: using randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to study the causal impact of expectations. Drawing on more than a decade of research, it shows how targeted information treatments can generate experimental variation in beliefs—making it possible to measure how those beliefs influence real-world decisions. Along the way, the lecture reassess the limits of the traditional rational expectations framework and offer a richer, evidence-based picture of how people form and act on their views about the economy How do expectations about the future influence economic behavior? For decades, economists have known that beliefs play a central role—from how much households spend, to how firms set prices, to how central banks design policy. But figuring out exactly how expectations affect decisions has been one of the field’s most persistent empirical challenges.This lecture presents a fresh empirical approach: using randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to study the causal impact of expectations. Drawing on more than a decade of research, it shows how targeted information treatments can generate experimental variation in beliefs—making it possible to measure how those beliefs influence real-world decisions. Along the way, the lecture reassess the limits of the traditional rational expectations framework and offer a richer, evidence-based picture of how people form and act on their views about the economy EEA-ESEM 2024 congress@eeassoc.org Europe/Rome public
Presenter(s) Yuriy Gorodnichenko
TypeKeynote Address
Date 28/08
Time11:00 CEST
Length
75
mins
Chair
Room Number
Add to calendar
Add to Calendar 2025-08-28 11:00:00 2025-06-25 19:56:32 EEA-ESEM 2024: Schumpeter Lecture. Room: How do expectations about the future influence economic behavior? For decades, economists have known that beliefs play a central role—from how much households spend, to how firms set prices, to how central banks design policy. But figuring out exactly how expectations affect decisions has been one of the field’s most persistent empirical challenges.This lecture presents a fresh empirical approach: using randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to study the causal impact of expectations. Drawing on more than a decade of research, it shows how targeted information treatments can generate experimental variation in beliefs—making it possible to measure how those beliefs influence real-world decisions. Along the way, the lecture reassess the limits of the traditional rational expectations framework and offer a richer, evidence-based picture of how people form and act on their views about the economy How do expectations about the future influence economic behavior? For decades, economists have known that beliefs play a central role—from how much households spend, to how firms set prices, to how central banks design policy. But figuring out exactly how expectations affect decisions has been one of the field’s most persistent empirical challenges.This lecture presents a fresh empirical approach: using randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to study the causal impact of expectations. Drawing on more than a decade of research, it shows how targeted information treatments can generate experimental variation in beliefs—making it possible to measure how those beliefs influence real-world decisions. Along the way, the lecture reassess the limits of the traditional rational expectations framework and offer a richer, evidence-based picture of how people form and act on their views about the economy EEA-ESEM 2024 congress@eeassoc.org Europe/Rome public

How do expectations about the future influence economic behavior? For decades, economists have known that beliefs play a central role—from how much households spend, to how firms set prices, to how central banks design policy. But figuring out exactly how expectations affect decisions has been one of the field’s most persistent empirical challenges.

This lecture presents a fresh empirical approach: using randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to study the causal impact of expectations. Drawing on more than a decade of research, it shows how targeted information treatments can generate experimental variation in beliefs—making it possible to measure how those beliefs influence real-world decisions. Along the way, the lecture reassess the limits of the traditional rational expectations framework and offer a richer, evidence-based picture of how people form and act on their views about the economy

Presentations

Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments